Advanced Statistics for Beginners: Points Per 60 MinutesPosted: 12/01/2013
Here we are at the third of a four part series, you can read the introduction here, and part 2 here. For a much more in-depth explanation of this methodology, please check out PuckProspectus.com, or FaceoffFactor.com for some high end stats use applied directly to the Pens.
This statistic is typically broken up into Power Play Points per 60 Minutes (PPP/60) and Even Strength Points per 60 Minutes (ESP/60). In essence to calculate this stat you would take a player’s total production, either on the power play or at even strength, divide it by their total time on the ice at even strength or on the power play, and then multiplied by 60 (which represents minutes), or in other words: Points/Time on Ice x 60 = Points per 60 minutes. This stat is invaluable for eliminating the variable of ice time as an influencing factor on productivity. Basically this stat establishes looks at what each player is able to produce in a given amount of time.
Although there are no hard boundaries on this, a top-six forward should produce at least 2 ESP/60, elite offensive defensemen should be at least near 1 ESP/60. Effective power play players, whether forwards or defense, should expect to produce at least 4 PPP/60. Last year’s fifth rated power play featured four 4 PPP/60 producers (Malkin, Neal, Kunitz, Letang). Ironically, Steve Sullivan, the man most attributed with fixing the Penguins’ PP woes is the only one to have a sub 4 number: 3.79 PPP/60. If you have any doubts about how good Sid can be consider this, in the 21 games he did play last year he had a 4.73 ESP/60, more than one point higher than what Geno produced (3.66 ESP/60).
It is for this reason that I have actually concluded that Tyler Kennedy should be the other winger along with Malkin and Neal, and that he should receive second power play unit time. Although last year may seem like a letdown from TK (11 goals, 22 assists compared to 21 and 24 in 2010-11), it was actually relatively more productive. According to PuckProspectus.com TK managed a very reasonable 2.14 ESP/60, entirely comparable to Chris Kunitz’s 2.22 ESP/60 from last year. Further, in the fateful 2010-11 season (you know the one where Crosby first got concussed, and then Malkin’s knee exploded) when Kennedy played on the top power play unit he produced at a rate of 4.88 PPP/60, the most productivity for anyone on the Pens that year.
More than any of his competition, TK actually has a pretty clear track record of performing when he is given the opportunity, and given that Malkin and Neal ranked first and second respectively in shots on net last year, it seems like TK would have that opportunity with those guys.
So, Go TK? Is that really what I want to say here? I don’t know…